Southeast European electricity markets saw a sharp recovery in day-ahead prices on Monday as industrial demand returned after the weekend. Regional power consumption increased by almost 3 GW, while renewable generation fell back from Sunday highs. Most regional benchmarks moved back above €100/MWh, with Hungary again setting the pace across Central and Southeast Europe.
The Hungarian HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.19/MWh, up more than €71/MWh from Sunday. Romania’s OPCOM market closed at €115.19/MWh, while Croatia reached €111.07/MWh. Slovenia traded at €109.70/MWh and Bulgaria settled at €104.37/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained comparatively lower at €88.14/MWh. Albania continued to reflect abundant hydro availability, closing at just €56.86/MWh.
Demand and generation shifts tighten the regional balance
Weekday industrial activity was the dominant driver behind the price move. Regional demand rose to 28.5 GW, almost 3 GW higher than Sunday levels. At the same time, total generation declined by around 1.7 GW, tightening the supply-demand balance across the interconnected SEE region.
Renewables output eased from weekend levels, with hydro production falling by approximately 500 MW day-on-day. Solar generation dropped by nearly 850 MW as conditions became less favourable than during the weekend. Wind output stayed subdued at just 582 MW, providing limited support for evening peak load periods.
Nuclear generation increased slightly to 4.1 GW, helping offset part of the renewable decline.
Hydro, solar and thermal value during evening ramp
The regional generation mix showed continued diversification across Southeast Europe. Hydro remained the largest single source at 5.35 GW, followed by coal at 4.56 GW and solar at 4.58 GW. Nuclear was at 4.12 GW and gas-fired generation stood at 2.98 GW.
The reduction in solar and hydro output increased the marginal value of thermal generation during the evening ramp period.
Intraday price curves reflected this pattern across most exchanges, with solar suppressing midday prices before values accelerated after sunset. Hungary’s evening peak reached approximately €235/MWh, and similar spikes were recorded in Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Greece as solar production disappeared and thermal units became increasingly marginal.
Cross-border flows and Serbia’s relative pricing
Cross-border flows underlined the role of interconnection capacity in balancing supply and demand across the region. Romania remained a major exporter toward Hungary, while Slovenia and Croatia continued to route electricity toward Italy. Structural import requirements in Italy supported premium pricing there.
Commercial flow data showed sustained exports from Slovenia into Italy averaging more than 500 MW. This reinforced the importance of the Adriatic corridor for regional balancing .
Serbia traded at comparatively competitive levels on Monday, with SEEPEX settling at €88.14/MWh. That left Serbia with discounts exceeding €25/MWh versus Hungary and Romania, supported by strong domestic thermal and hydro availability that reduced import needs .
Hydrology improves while forwards price a different outlook
Regional fundamentals were also supported by improving hydrological conditions. Danube river flows increased to approximately 6,043 cubic metres per second, above recent lows and supportive for hydro generation across Serbia, Romania and downstream Balkan systems.
Forward markets were more cautious than spot trading, with Hungarian Week 24 baseload contracts around €113/MWh while equivalent German products were near €107/MWh. That left a premium of roughly €6-7/MWh for Central and Southeast European delivery . The limited forward response indicated expectations for strong renewable output and improving hydro conditions to contain sustained price escalation through June.
Gas, carbon and weather signals for coming days
Fuel and carbon markets provided limited additional bullish support for power prices. Austrian CEGH gas futures remained close to €50/MWh, while EU carbon allowances traded around €76.9/tCO₂, extending a downward trend in emissions costs . Lower carbon prices improved coal-fired generation competitiveness across Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania by reducing marginal production costs for thermal assets.
Weather forecasts pointed to rising temperatures across much of Southeast Europe over the coming days. Serbia was expected to approach 24°C, while Greece and Montenegro were forecast near 26°C, supporting higher cooling demand during afternoon and evening peak periods .
Trading conditions remained linked to evening scarcity pricing, widening north-south spreads and greater reliance on cross-border balancing flows . Improving hydrology and falling carbon prices were described as bearish influences alongside recovering demand, limited wind output and continued transmission constraints as summer approached.
