Greece’s growing renewable energy capacity, particularly in wind and solar power, has the potential to significantly influence regional electricity markets and could position the country as a net power exporter, according to a Greek trader.
Currently, Greece has 5.7 GW of onshore wind capacity, but the country’s wind energy potential is far greater, especially with the development of offshore wind. Greece has set an ambitious target of at least 2 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, and the energy minister recently announced plans to add 1.5 GW of additional wind capacity by 2027. Greece’s national energy and climate plan foresees a total of 8.9 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030, rising to 9.5 GW by 2035.
The expansion of wind energy in Greece could have significant effects on electricity pricing in neighboring countries, such as Bulgaria, Italy, Romania, and Hungary, according to regional traders. With recent additions in solar and wind capacity, Greece is on track to achieve its lowest annual power imports since 2000. Energy adviser to the Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Nikos Tsafos, highlighted in September that these renewable energy developments are contributing to Greece’s energy independence.
However, traders emphasize that for Greece to capitalize on its increasing renewable energy output and export power, the country must expand its electricity interconnections with neighboring countries, including Albania, North Macedonia, Turkey, Italy, and Bulgaria. In 2023, Greece imported 4.9 TWh of electricity and exported 3.2 TWh, with most imports coming from Bulgaria and most exports directed to Albania, North Macedonia, and Italy.
Greece’s spot electricity prices typically trade at a premium compared to other southeast European markets, largely due to its coupling with the more expensive Italian market, which is dominated by gas-fired generation. However, with a significant increase in wind energy capacity, Greece’s price premium could narrow or even reverse, traders suggest, potentially making Greek power prices more competitive within the broader regional market.
In summary, while Greece’s renewable energy sector is poised for growth, expanding grid interconnections will be crucial to fully unlocking the potential of its wind and solar resources, and to establishing Greece as a major exporter of clean energy in southeastern Europe.
