Greece recorded the largest increase in wholesale electricity prices across Southeast Europe in Week 34, offering a clear example of how a sharp decline in wind generation can outweigh otherwise supportive market fundamentals.
The Greek day-ahead electricity price averaged €144.41/MWh, representing a 41.2% increase from Week 33. The price surge came despite electricity demand being 10.87% lower than in Week 30, indicating that stronger consumption was not the primary driver behind the market’s sharp upward move.
Renewable generation provides a stronger explanation. Greek wind output fell by 48.2% compared with Week 30, one of the most significant declines recorded across the monitored Southeast European markets. Solar generation moved in the opposite direction, increasing by 4.3%, but this was insufficient to offset the reduction in wind output. Total variable renewable generation consequently declined by 9.6%.
The contrasting performance of wind and solar highlights an increasingly important feature of Greece’s power market. Higher solar production can provide substantial supply during daylight hours and contribute to lower midday prices, but it cannot fully compensate for a sustained decline in wind generation across the broader daily profile. After sunset, the system must replace both the disappearing solar output and the missing wind generation with hydropower, thermal capacity, imports or other flexible resources.
Greece’s thermal generation increased by 7.45%, indicating that conventional power plants were required to cover a larger share of the residual load. At the same time, the country significantly strengthened its net export position, moving from a near-balanced position of just 6.72 GWh in Week 30 to net exports of 114.39 GWh in Week 34.
This combination illustrates why weekly market averages can obscure substantial hourly differences. Greece can export electricity during periods of strong renewable production while simultaneously experiencing high-priced domestic hours when wind and solar availability weaken.
The Week 34 price increase should therefore be viewed less as a conventional demand-driven scarcity event and more as a flexibility and generation-availability issue. Greece has substantial installed renewable capacity, but the value of dispatchable resources rises quickly when renewable production becomes concentrated in fewer hours of the day.
The development is particularly relevant for other increasingly solar-heavy electricity systems across Southeast Europe. Strong daytime renewable production can reduce prices for several hours, but it does not eliminate wholesale price risk if sufficient flexible capacity is unavailable when renewable output falls.
Greece’s Week 34 experience highlights the growing importance of the evening transition. When wind availability is weak and solar generation disappears after sunset, the system must rapidly replace a large volume of renewable supply. Without sufficient hydro, storage, thermal flexibility or import capacity, those hours can become the key price-setting periods for the entire market.
