Gas volatility did not translate into higher SEE electricity prices in Week 24. European TTF futures averaged €49.00/MWh, up 0.9% week on week, but most SEE day-ahead electricity markets moved lower as renewable generation strengthened and regional supply conditions improved.
TTF prices fluctuated through the week, reaching €49.99/MWh before falling to €46.77/MWh by Friday. The one-month TTF forward was quoted at €41.180/MWh, while Henry Hub traded at $3.24/MMBtu and JKM stood at $15.940/MMBtu. The market remained sensitive to LNG competition, storage refill needs and geopolitical risk, but near-term supply conditions limited stronger upside.
Power markets responded more to renewables than to gas. Regional wind and solar generation increased by 518.6 GWh, or 16.6%, to 3.64 TWh. Wind rose 28.1%, solar 10.4%. This additional renewable supply helped offset a 4.6% rise in electricity demand and pushed prices lower in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Hungary and Italy.
Gas-fired generation did not lead the thermal response. Regional gas generation declined 58.0 GWh, or 2.4%, to 2.38 TWh. Coal and lignite instead increased 420.6 GWh, or 24.4%, to 2.14 TWh, as hydro output fell 7.5%. That shift muted the direct influence of gas prices on power clearing in several markets.
The week’s signal is important for trading strategy. Gas remains a major risk factor for European power, but SEE price formation is increasingly shaped by the interaction between renewables, hydro and coal. In Week 24, gas volatility was present, but it was not dominant. The stronger driver was the renewable build-up that capped power prices before gas could pull the region higher.
