Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has reported an 18-20% increase in Russian gas exports to Europe in 2024 compared to the previous year. From January to November 2024, both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries exceeded 50 billion cubic meters. This rise comes after a sharp decline in 2023, when Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe fell by 55.6%, down to 28.3 billion cubic meters, largely due to the strained relations with the West over the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This year, exports are projected to recover to around 32 billion cubic meters, according to calculations by Reuters based on data from Gazprom and European gas pipeline operators.
However, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe face significant obstacles. A five-year gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which has allowed gas deliveries to continue despite the conflict, is set to expire at the end of this year. Ukraine has made it clear that it will not extend the deal. Currently, approximately half of Russia’s gas to Europe is transported through Ukraine, with the remaining supply flowing through the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea. Novak has emphasized that Russia is ready to continue supplying gas through various routes but stated that an agreement between Ukraine and the EU is necessary for the continued use of the Ukrainian transit route.
On the other hand, Russian LNG exports to Europe have been steadily increasing, with Europe now accounting for about half of Russia’s LNG shipments. While the European Union has no immediate plans to halt LNG imports from Russia, it aims to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by 2027, seeking to replace it with supplies from Norway, the United States, and Qatar.
Looking ahead, Novak also indicated that Russian LNG exports in 2024 are expected to remain stable, with an estimated 33 million tons of LNG set for export, a slight increase from the 32.9 million tons exported in 2023.
