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Europe: Brent oil and TTF gas prices surge amid Middle East tensions and supply concerns

Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market recorded their lowest weekly settlement price at $66.87 per barrel on Tuesday, June 10. For most sessions during the second week of June, settlement prices stayed below $70 per barrel. However, on Friday, June 13, these futures rose by 7.0% compared to the previous day, reaching the highest weekly settlement price of $74.23 per barrel. This price was 12% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since April 3, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

The rise in Brent oil futures at the end of the second week of June was driven by increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Concerns about possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil supplies, pushed prices upward. Additionally, data showing a decline in US oil reserves contributed to the price increase.

For TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front Month, the lowest weekly settlement price of €34.64 per MWh was recorded on Tuesday, June 10. Prices then trended upwards, reaching a weekly high of €37.89 per MWh on Friday, June 13. This price was 4.5% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since April 4, based on AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s data.

During the second week of June, concerns about the impact of increased Middle East tensions on liquefied natural gas supplies pushed TTF gas futures prices higher. Additionally, forecasts of high temperatures and reduced wind energy production in Europe, along with potential supply disruptions from Norway, contributed to the price rise.

Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 contract, the lowest weekly settlement price was €72.66 per ton on June 10. Settlement prices increased in the remaining sessions, culminating in a weekly high of €75.94 per ton on Friday, June 13. This price was 3.3% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since February 18, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, AleaSoft reports.

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