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Europe: Brent oil and TTF gas prices rise amid geopolitical tensions, CO₂ allowances dip slightly

During the second week of July, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market generally followed an upward trend. The exception was Thursday, July 10, when the settlement price dropped by 2.2% from the previous day, reaching the week’s lowest settlement price of $68.64 per barrel. However, on Friday, July 11, prices rebounded by 2.5% to hit the weekly high of $70.36 per barrel, which was 3.0% higher than the previous Friday’s close.

Despite OPEC+ announcing increased production for August, Brent prices were supported by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia’s price hikes for Asia, and the possibility of new sanctions on Russian oil. Concerns over U.S. tariff policies and their impact on global demand remained. News of potential OPEC+ discussions to pause production hikes in October, coupled with rising U.S. crude inventories, contributed to the midweek price dip.

For TTF gas futures on the ICE market, the Front Month contract hit its weekly low of €33.62/MWh on Monday, July 7, before steadily climbing to a weekly high of €35.56/MWh on Friday, July 11 — a 6.3% increase compared to the previous Friday. Rising demand in Asia due to a heatwave fueled price gains, though concerns about U.S. tariff impacts kept prices under €36/MWh. Increased LNG shipments to Asia could also affect Europe’s gas reserve fills ahead of winter.

Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 contract, the highest settlement price of €71.20 per ton was reached on Monday, July 7, slightly down 0.7% from the prior Friday. Prices declined through July 9, reaching a weekly low of €70.41 per ton. In the final days of the week, settlement prices edged up but remained below €71, closing at €70.55 per ton on Friday, July 11 — 1.6% lower than the previous week’s close, AleaSoft reports.

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