Serbia’s EPS is facing higher reliance on power imports as Danube inflows remain persistently weak. The low-water conditions are limiting generation from the Đerdap hydropower cascade and starting to affect thermal output at Kostolac. EPS is a state-owned utility operating across both hydro and thermal assets.
Current Danube inflows are running at about half the long-term average and are approaching the river’s biological minimum. Forecasts provide little indication of a material recovery during the coming weeks.
Đerdap 1 output reduced under current river conditions
Đerdap 1 has recently generated slightly more than 5,000 MWh per day, which is around one-third of normal production. The reported daily volume equates to an average output of about 208 MW. Compared with an implied normal level of roughly 625 MW, the lost generation is close to 10 GWh per day.
Replacing the missing energy at wholesale prices of €100–130/MWh could cost approximately €1–1.3 million per day. The estimate excludes congestion effects, balancing requirements, and differences between hourly import prices. The financial impact increases further when low hydrology coincides with evening scarcity or regional heat-driven demand.
EPS said all refurbished Đerdap units remain technically available and are operating at the maximum output permitted by current river conditions. The constraint is therefore hydrological rather than mechanical. As a result, conventional improvements to availability do not address the underlying limitation.
Bajina Bašta pumped storage and Kostolac cooling constraints
The modernised Bajina Bašta pumped-storage plant provides some operational relief for EPS. EPS can buy electricity during low-priced solar hours, pump water into the upper reservoir, and generate during more expensive evening periods. This approach reduces replacement-energy costs but cannot fully offset sustained losses from the larger Đerdap cascade.
Low water levels are also restricting cooling capacity at the Kostolac thermal power plants. That limitation forces reductions in generation from the thermal fleet. With hydro output constrained at Đerdap while coal generation is affected at Kostolac, EPS faces a correlated risk across two parts of its production portfolio.
Shift toward imports and short-term trading pressure
Serbia’s electricity system remains operationally stable despite the generation constraints. However, the economic burden is moving toward imports, short-term trading, and careful use of stored hydro resources. The Danube drought has become a balance-sheet issue as well as a generation constraint.
