On January 1, Russian gas exports to the European Union via Ukraine came to an end after a five-year agreement expired. This marks the conclusion of a long-standing arrangement that has been in place since 1991. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the cessation, asserting that his country would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” Meanwhile, Poland’s government hailed the cut-off as another victory against Moscow.
The European Commission acknowledged the end of the deal but assured that most EU states were prepared for the change and would manage without disruption. However, Moldova, which is not an EU member, is already facing gas shortages as a result. Despite the halt to gas exports via Ukraine, Russia can still send gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.
Russian gas company Gazprom confirmed that gas exports to Europe via Ukraine stopped at 08:00 local time (05:00 GMT) on January 1. While the immediate impact is not significant, the long-term strategic and symbolic effects are considerable for Europe. Russia has lost an important market, and while the EU has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several Eastern European countries, such as Slovakia and Austria, still depended heavily on these supplies.
In 2023, Russian gas accounted for less than 10% of the EU’s gas imports, down from 40% in 2021. However, countries like Slovakia and Austria continue to import considerable amounts. Austria’s energy regulator has assured that no disruptions are expected, thanks to diversified sources and reserves. Yet, Slovakia, now the main transit route for Russian gas into the EU, has voiced concerns about rising costs for alternative routes. Slovakia’s energy regulator announced in December that gas prices for consumers would increase in 2025.
The end of the deal has sparked tensions, particularly with Slovakia. Prime Minister Robert Fico warned that it would have “drastic” consequences for EU countries, but he argued that Russia would be less affected. On December 27, Fico, who had recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatened to halt electricity exports to Ukraine, prompting strong condemnation from Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader accused Fico of indirectly supporting Putin’s war efforts, saying, “Fico is dragging Slovakia into Russia’s attempts to cause more suffering for Ukrainians.”
Poland has pledged to assist Ukraine in the event that Slovakia follows through with its threats, as Ukrainian power plants remain vulnerable to Russian attacks. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski emphasized the importance of exploring alternative gas supply routes, including terminals in Croatia and connections from Germany and Poland, to reduce Russia’s revenue from energy sales to the EU.
