In the week ending October 4, Brent oil futures in the ICE market experienced notable fluctuations. The Front Month futures hit a weekly low of $71.77 per barrel on September 30 before rebounding to a high of $78.05 per barrel by Friday, marking an 8.4% increase and the highest price seen since late August. This rise was driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly fears regarding attacks on oil infrastructure in Iran or Saudi Arabia, as well as the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
However, the announcement of recovering production levels in Libya and OPEC+’s decision to stick to planned production increases for December somewhat tempered these fears.
In the natural gas sector, TTF gas futures in the ICE market also followed an upward trajectory. After reaching a weekly low of €38.62 per MWh on October 2—down 1.7% from the previous day—prices rallied to €40.98 per MWh by October 4. This marked a 7.5% increase from the prior Friday and represented the highest settlement price since December 2023. While concerns about supply were heightened by the Middle East situation, high European reserve levels helped to moderate potential price surges.
Conversely, CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the December 2024 contract saw a downward trend. These futures peaked at €65.56 per ton on September 30, only to drop to a weekly low of €62.05 per ton by October 4, reflecting a 6.5% decrease and the lowest level since early April.
Overall, the first week of October was characterized by significant price movements in oil and gas futures influenced by geopolitical factors and market fundamentals, AleaSoft reports.
