TTF gas futures prices in Europe came under mild upward pressure during the third week of October 2025, driven by expectations of higher gas exports to Ukraine amid ongoing war-related damage to the country’s gas infrastructure. However, elevated European gas storage levels and robust supply from Norway and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports helped keep prices stable and below the previous week’s levels.
TTF gas futures for November 2025 delivery on the ICE market averaged €31.859/MWh during the week, down 2.6% from Week 41. Prices started the week lower, with Monday, October 13, marking the weekly minimum at €31.475/MWh, a 5.0% drop compared to the same day the previous week. Prices then rose modestly, peaking on Thursday, October 16, at €32.378/MWh—up 1.7% from the prior session. By October 17, prices slipped slightly to €31.816/MWh, remaining largely steady overall.
The stability in prices was supported by forecasts of milder weather across Northwest Europe after October 18, following a brief cold spell earlier in the month. Near-term demand is expected to rise slightly due to cooler conditions and reduced wind power generation, while supply remains strong thanks to steady LNG inflows and increased pipeline deliveries from Algeria.
According to Reuters, France’s LNG import capacity will face temporary constraints this winter due to a pipeline outage on the Rhone link, which connects Fos-sur-Mer terminals to the national grid. The disruption could reduce total supply by about 43.5 TWh over the winter—roughly equivalent to 11 days of France’s total seasonal gas demand. The pipeline’s daily capacity of 160 GWh normally allows regasified LNG to enter the network and be distributed nationwide.
The outage coincides with ongoing labor strikes at the Fos-sur-Mer and Montoir-de-Bretagne LNG terminals, operated by Elengy, which have disrupted operations for more than six weeks. Combined LNG inflows from Fos Cavaou and Fos Tonkin terminals declined month-on-month, but these reductions were offset by higher flows from Dunkirk and Montoir terminals.
Meanwhile, the Council of the European Union has agreed on new rules to phase out Russian gas, LNG, and coal imports, confirming a full ban on Russian gas by January 1, 2028. The plan is part of the EU’s REPowerEU strategy to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels while maintaining energy security. Imports of Russian gas into the EU will be prohibited from January 1, 2026, although short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025, may continue until June 17, 2026, and long-term contracts until January 1, 2028. The regulation gives member states the authority to block Russian gas imports, including LNG routed through third countries, while encouraging diversification toward renewable and low-carbon sources.
As part of this strategy, the EU has invited Serbia to join its joint gas-purchasing platform, established in 2023 to help countries secure favorable supply deals and reduce dependency on Russia. Serbia, which currently sources around 80% of its natural gas from Russia, has been urged to align its energy policy more closely with EU standards as part of its broader EU accession process.
