In the fifth week of May 2025, TTF gas futures on the ICE market for June delivery were lower compared to the previous week, averaging around €36/MWh. On Monday, May 26, TTF gas futures reached their highest settlement price of the week at €37.369/MWh, which was 2.5% higher than the last session of the previous week and 6.1% higher than on Monday, May 19. However, gas prices declined over the course of the week, falling to a weekly low of €34.228/MWh on Friday, May 30. This marked a 3.3% drop from the previous day and a 6.1% decline compared to Friday, May 23. The weekly average stood at €36.19/MWh, which was 2.8% higher than in Week 20.
At the start of the following week, European benchmark natural gas prices rose due to an unplanned reduction in capacity at Norway’s Troll gas field, which is the largest single supplier of gas to Europe. This increase continued a four-week streak of rising gas prices. The market remained sensitive to disruptions in supply as Europe continues its efforts to replenish gas storage ahead of the 2025/2026 winter season, amid competition with Asia.
The cut in output from the Troll field occurred just before the start of Norway’s scheduled summer maintenance season at several gas fields, which is expected to reduce pipeline flows to Europe. At the same time, planned maintenance was ongoing at the Nyhamna gas processing plant and the Aasta Hansteen field, contributing to the overall reduction in Norwegian supply.
According to Equinor, Troll produced record-high gas volumes in 2024, increasing output by 10% over the previous record in 2022. The field remains critical to Europe’s energy stability, providing reliable supply for households and industries across the continent.
As of the time of writing, the one-month forward contract at TTF was trading at €36.145/MWh. European Gas Hub reported that the drop in Norwegian supply has led to a significant reduction in gas injections into storage, with daily rates falling to roughly half of what was seen at the beginning of May. Despite this, low gas demand has helped maintain market balance. Current LNG import projections remain stable, but if demand rises later in the year, storage levels could fall below 80% of capacity by early November.
In parallel developments, Russia’s Gazprom agreed to extend natural gas deliveries to Serbia for four more months, replacing the expired contract on May 31 with a temporary arrangement. A new long-term deal is expected to follow. Serbia plays a key role in Russia’s gas transit to friendly states like Hungary and Slovakia, especially after Ukraine ceased allowing gas transit across its territory at the start of 2025. The volumes will continue to flow via the TurkStream pipeline, which connects Russia to Türkiye and then to Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary.
Dušan Bajatović, executive director of Srbijagas, confirmed that Gazprom will supply Serbia with 6.1 million cubic metres of gas per day between June 1 and September 30 at an estimated price of €290 per thousand cubic metres. This price is reportedly below current spot market levels in Europe, helping keep gas prices stable for Serbian consumers and industries.
Bajatović added that the agreement would also allow Srbijagas to fill the Banatski Dvor underground storage facility in Serbia ahead of the winter season, along with storing an additional 150 million cubic metres of gas in neighboring Hungary.
