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Europe: Fossil fuel and carbon markets rise in early June amid supply concerns and maintenance impacts

Brent oil futures for the Front Month in the ICE market recorded their lowest settlement price of the week, $64.63 per barrel, on Monday, June 2. Prices increased during most sessions throughout the first week of June, reaching a weekly high of $66.47 per barrel on Friday, June 6. This value was 4.0% higher than the settlement price from the previous Friday. On Monday, June 9, prices continued to rise, closing at $67.04 per barrel, marking the highest level since April 23.

The upward trend in Brent oil futures during the first week of June was driven by several factors. Despite scheduled production increases by OPEC+, unplanned disruptions such as the wildfires in Canada, potential new sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports, and concerns about geopolitical instability in the Middle East contributed to fears of tighter supply. Additionally, optimism around potential progress in trade negotiations between China and the United States also supported price growth.

For TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front Month, the lowest settlement price of the week was €35.02 per megawatt-hour on Monday, June 2. Prices remained below €36/MWh during the first three trading sessions of the week. However, by Thursday, June 5, they reached the weekly high of €36.39/MWh. On Friday, June 6, the price slightly declined to €36.25/MWh, but it was still 5.9% above the price from the previous Friday.

Gas prices were influenced by ongoing maintenance work in Norway, which limited gas supply. The start of maintenance at the Kollsnes processing plant, in particular, contributed to prices rising above €36/MWh in the latter part of the week. Forecasts indicating lower wind energy production also placed upward pressure on gas prices.

In the CO2 emission allowance futures market on the EEX, referring to the December 2025 contract, the weekly minimum settlement price was €70.91 per ton on Monday, June 2. Prices followed an upward trend throughout the week, reaching €73.50 per ton by Friday, June 6. This was a 4.4% increase compared to the previous Friday. On Monday, June 9, the price climbed further to €74.23 per ton, the highest level since February 19.

These developments across oil, gas, and carbon markets reflect the combined impact of supply concerns, market expectations, and broader geopolitical and environmental factors shaping energy prices in early June, AleaSoft reports.

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