With only a few days remaining before the deadline for sanctions against the Serbian oil company NIS, imposed by the former US administration under President Joe Biden, there has been no response from the US regarding a proposed 90-day extension to continue negotiations.
In the meantime, nearly all major fuel distributors in Serbia have stopped purchasing from NIS. Employees were paid their February salaries in advance, and if no resolution is reached soon, banks may sever ties with the company. If financial transactions are blocked and obligations enforced, NIS could face bankruptcy, a situation that Serbia, as a minority shareholder, cannot afford to let happen.
While speculation about potential outcomes grows, the possibility of Gazprom taking over NIS has not been widely discussed. Unlike other Russian energy companies, Gazprom has not faced sanctions since the war in Ukraine began. Previously, when the European Union banned NIS from importing Russian oil, Gazprom stepped in by purchasing a 6% stake in NIS from GazpromNeft, allowing Serbia to continue importing non-Russian crude oil.
Experts suggest that Gazprom could consider a similar strategy again, though the long-term viability of such a move is uncertain. If the previous US administration were still in power, Gazprom would likely already be facing sanctions. A key challenge with any potential Gazprom takeover of NIS is that every transaction would require US approval, making it unlikely unless an agreement is reached between both sides beforehand.
Discussions have also emerged about an agency supplying oil to NIS to maintain operations at the Pancevo refinery during the sanction period. However, this option seems unrealistic, as the agency would need a license. Currently, the only entity with the necessary licenses to handle such transactions is the state-owned company Transnafta. For this plan to work, Transnafta would need to transition into a fully operational oil company, which is unlikely without significant support from NIS’s workforce.
In addition, NIS is expected to face operational difficulties in the Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, and Bulgaria, where it currently operates or leases fuel stations. Another major concern is the supply of aviation fuel, as NIS is the sole provider of jet fuel services at Serbian airports. Some airlines, including Wizz Air, have already switched to fueling in Romania due to the uncertainty surrounding NIS’s operations.
