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Region: SEE electricity prices rebound in Week 42 as renewables drop and thermal generation rises

During Week 42 of 2025, electricity market prices across Southeast Europe (SEE) rebounded compared to Week 41, driven by colder weather and lower renewable output. Most SEE markets recorded weekly average prices above €130/MWh, except for Italy and Türkiye. The regional average hovered around €129/MWh for the week. Prices started high, exceeding €160/MWh and peaking on Tuesday, October 14, before falling to between €53 and €103/MWh by the end of the week. Greece and Serbia saw the sharpest price increases, up by 32.54% and 25.82%, respectively. Bulgaria followed with a 21.22% rise, while Romania recorded an increase of 21.01%. Türkiye and Italy experienced smaller price hikes of 4.11% and 6.40%, respectively.

In Central Europe, electricity prices in the third week of October continued the upward trend from the previous week, frequently surpassing €110/MWh due to lower renewable generation and rising demand. Prices in the region ranged from €79/MWh to €130/MWh. Slovenia was the most expensive market, with an average of €130.42/MWh, up 16.80% from Week 41, followed by Austria at €126.59/MWh. France recorded the lowest price in the region at €78.78/MWh, showing only a modest 0.40% weekly increase.

Across Europe, average weekly electricity prices during Week 42 stood at about €120/MWh, ranging from €78.78/MWh in France to €148.81/MWh in Serbia. The MIBEL markets saw significant increases, with Spain rising 16.43% to €92.99/MWh and Portugal up 17.05% to €94.20/MWh. In Southern Europe, most countries recorded prices above €110/MWh, except for Türkiye, where the weekly average stood at €58.96/MWh. Italy was the second cheapest SEE market at €118.22/MWh. Serbia posted the highest average price at €148.81/MWh, up 25.82% from early October. Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria also ranked among the highest, with prices of €145.87/MWh, €145.16/MWh, and €145.26/MWh, respectively. Most SEE markets reached their highest prices on Tuesday, October 14, and their lowest on Sunday, October 19. As the following week began, prices began trending downward. On October 22, day-ahead prices ranged from €134.99/MWh in Slovenia and €135.46/MWh in Croatia to €148.86/MWh in Montenegro and €153.03/MWh in Albania.

Electricity demand in the SEE region remained largely stable, dipping slightly by 0.07% compared to the previous week, totaling 15,806.13 GWh. Cooler temperatures in southern countries led to increased heating demand. Bulgaria and Romania saw the largest declines in demand at -2.15% and -2.56%, respectively, followed by Greece at -2.05%. Meanwhile, Hungary and Croatia recorded increases of 1.89% and 1.20%, while Italy’s demand rose by 0.85%.

Renewable generation in the SEE region declined sharply by 33.7% week-on-week to 2,113.49 GWh, mainly due to a 50.6% drop in wind output. Wind generation totaled 909.68 GWh, with all SEE countries posting declines. Hungary and Italy recorded the steepest drops at 70.5% and 69.5%, followed by Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia with decreases of 62.5%, 62.5%, and 58.9%, respectively. Solar generation fell 10.8% to 1,203.81 GWh, with the largest reductions seen in Italy (-145.14 GWh) and Greece (-64.83 GWh).

Hydropower generation in the SEE region also fell by 8.97% from Week 41, reaching 1,506.61 GWh. The decline was mainly driven by lower production in Bulgaria (-37.55%), Croatia (-17.56%), Italy (-11.61%), and Türkiye (-16.91%). However, Hungary (+29.48%), Serbia (+24.97%), and Romania (+13.92%) reported increased hydropower output compared to the previous week.

Thermal generation in SEE markets rose by 14.44% to 8,369.32 GWh, supported by higher gas-fired output, while coal generation eased slightly. Coal-fired production fell by 1.82% to 3,432.36 GWh, while gas-fired output increased by 29.32% to 4,936.35 GWh. Türkiye recorded a 2.32% drop in coal generation but an 18.45% increase in gas-fired output. Bulgaria saw coal-based generation rise by 16.75% and gas-fired output by 2.56%. In Greece, coal-fired generation rose 7.28% to 44.31 GWh, while gas-fired production surged 20.39%.

Cross-border electricity trade in the SEE region declined in Week 42 as net imports dropped by 12.37% to 1,039.85 GWh. Imports fell by 10.2% to 1,142.33 GWh, while exports rose 19% to 102.48 GWh. Italy (-100.35 GWh), Serbia (-41.04 GWh), Hungary (-28.49 GWh), and Türkiye (-16.54 GWh) saw significant decreases in net imports. In contrast, Romania (+35.91 GWh) and Croatia (+20.0 GWh) increased their reliance on imported electricity. Bulgaria shifted from being a net importer in the previous week to a net exporter in Week 42, while Greece maintained its net exporting position with exports totaling 56.18 GWh.

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