European gas prices peaked on Monday, February 10th, 2025, before experiencing a significant decline, easing some of the financial pressure on consumers. Gas contracts, which had reached their highest levels since 2023, saw a sharp drop afterward.
In the ICE market, TTF gas futures for March 2025 delivery dropped during the second week of February but remained above €50/MWh for the entire week. On Monday, February 10th, TTF gas futures reached their weekly high, settling at €58.039/MWh, which was 4.2% higher than the previous day and 7.9% higher than the previous Monday, February 3rd. This marked the highest price in 16 months, briefly exceeding €57/MWh in October 2023. However, prices fell in the following days. By Friday, February 14th, these futures reached their weekly low at €50.685/MWh, a 1.4% decrease from the previous day and 9.0% lower than the previous Friday, February 7th. The weekly average price stood at €54.71/MWh, 1.5% higher than the previous week.
As of the latest available data, the one-month forward contract for TTF was trading at €49.025/MWh. European natural gas futures dropped by more than 8% to around €51/MWh, driven by milder weather forecasts that were expected to reduce heating demand. Warmer temperatures and windier conditions led to decreased demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses, alleviating pressure on supply.
The sudden drop in prices seemed to be linked to speculation about potential political agreements, especially those involving former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Financial Times, talks about possible agreements related to Ukraine seemed to help calm market concerns, offering hints of stability. The market was closely monitoring efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump, who began unilateral peace talks on February 13th, with expectations that these discussions would ease market fears of significant disruptions.
Additional price relief came from several EU member states pushing to lower gas storage fill targets. After cold weather and reduced Russian supplies led to a faster drawdown of gas stocks, EU gas storage sites were 47.24% full. Germany, in particular, has advocated for more flexible gas storage targets due to concerns over their cost. The storage targets, introduced in response to the disruptions caused by the Ukraine war, require all EU countries to refill their storage caverns to 90% of capacity by November, with intermediate targets for February, May, July, and September.
