During the first week of May 2025, TTF gas futures for June delivery on the ICE market traded lower compared to the week of April 21 and consistently stayed below €35/MWh. The weekly low was recorded on Tuesday, April 29, at €31.956/MWh, which was 1.8% below the previous Tuesday. Prices then rose towards the end of the week, reaching a weekly high of €33.078/MWh on Friday, May 2, up 2.9% from the previous day and 2.0% above the previous Friday. The average weekly settlement price was €32.407/MWh, marking a 4.7% decrease from the Week 17 average.
On April 30, Dutch wholesale gas prices remained within a narrow range due to warm weather, subdued demand, and stable supply. Traders also monitored geopolitical developments, particularly the lack of progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks. The Kremlin stated that Ukraine had not responded to multiple offers for negotiations and questioned Kyiv’s willingness to participate in a proposed three-day ceasefire. Ukraine, in turn, called for an immediate and longer 30-day ceasefire.
By Friday, May 2, European natural gas futures rose more than 3.5% to €33/MWh, breaking a three-day stagnation. This rebound was supported by cooler weather forecasts in north-west Europe, expected to increase gas demand, and renewed optimism over possible trade negotiations between China and the US. Attention was also shifting to the upcoming EU discussions on reducing gas storage targets.
As of press time, the TTF one-month forward contract was trading at €34.550/MWh. Storage injections across the EU accelerated since late April, driven by higher LNG imports—up 20% year-over-year—and weak demand in the latter half of the month, partly due to strong solar generation. As a result, EU gas storage levels reached approximately 40% of working capacity by early May, with total injections standing 70% higher than at the same time in 2024, nearing 7 bcm.
In the coming week, EU institutions will negotiate new proposals to lower mandatory storage filling targets. The revised proposals suggest storage reaching 82–83 bcm (75–76% full) by the start of the next heating season, compared to historical averages of 97 bcm from 2016–2020 and 105 bcm from 2022–2024. Current EU storage stands at 39.52%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Additionally, the European Commission announced on Tuesday that it will present legal proposals in June 2025 to phase out all Russian gas and LNG imports by the end of 2027. This would include a ban on new contracts and a prohibition on spot imports by the end of 2025. The proposed measures are expected to impact countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, which still rely on Russian pipeline gas, as well as Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Spain, which currently import Russian LNG.
