Europe is preparing for the upcoming winter season amid reduced Russian pipeline supplies following the halt of transit through Ukraine. Currently, the only active route for Russian gas into the EU is via TurkStream, passing through Bulgaria.
Gas traders closely followed meetings between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and later Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Initial optimism for a quick breakthrough pushed Dutch TTF prices to their lowest levels since early April 2024, but more cautious signals from Moscow quickly reversed the trend. After an 8% rebound late last week, prices have stabilized around €33/MWh, roughly where they were before the high-level talks.
Progress in gas storage is helping stabilize the market. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU underground storage is 75.6% full. EU regulations require 90% capacity by 1 November, but given the current high-price environment, the European Commission is expected to implement the target with added flexibility.
Security risks remain high. Russia and Ukraine have continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, causing significant damage. Recent attacks in Ukraine have hit gas facilities, including sections of the Trans-Balkan pipeline intended for Azeri imports via Bulgaria. Ukraine has also struck multiple Russian refineries, including the Novoshakhtinsk plant in the Rostov region, which burned for several days, and a gas condensate terminal at Ust-Luga. Drone attacks briefly halted crude flows on the Druzhba pipeline, leading to sharp disputes with Hungary. Ukraine’s storage facilities are 20.5% full, yet the country has more than 33 billion cubic meters of capacity, exceeding its wartime annual consumption.
Additionally, the US president has warned of new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector, a move that could impact global crude markets.
