In Week 19 of 2025, TTF gas futures experienced a significant rally, rising by 5.5%—the largest daily increase since mid-March. This surge was mainly driven by the European Union’s newly unveiled plan to completely phase out Russian gas imports by the end of 2027. The policy includes the termination of long-term contracts for Russian gas by that deadline. Additional pressure on prices came from colder, less windy weather and unplanned supply disruptions, such as an outage at Norway’s Dvalin field that curtailed 7.6 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas per day.
Throughout the second week of May, TTF gas futures for June 2025 delivery remained above €32/MWh. Prices reached a weekly low of €32.930/MWh on May 5, slightly down from the prior session but still 1.2% higher than on April 28. Toward the end of the week, futures climbed further, peaking at €35.341/MWh on May 8—a 9.9% increase compared to the previous Thursday. The weekly average was €34.433/MWh, marking a 6.2% increase over the previous week.
The broader European natural gas market mirrored these gains, with prices exceeding €35/MWh due to tighter supply and stronger global demand for LNG. Seasonal maintenance and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows contributed to the constrained market. At the same time, Asian demand rebounded as Chinese buyers returned to the spot market, intensifying competition for LNG cargoes. Though lower gas prices had earlier helped Europe rebuild its storage levels, inventories remain below the five-year average.
On May 6, the European Commission officially published its roadmap to eliminate Russian pipeline and LNG gas imports by 2027. The policy aims to reduce Moscow’s energy revenues, which have been funding its war in Ukraine, and to prevent energy-based geopolitical leverage. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated that new global LNG developments could add between 25 and 30 bcm of gas in 2025 and up to 90 bcm by 2026, providing alternatives to Russian supply.
The EU had already cut its Russian gas imports significantly from 150 bcm in 2021 to 43 bcm in 2023—a 70% drop. However, this trend reversed in 2024, as Russian LNG imports rose from 18 to 20 bcm and pipeline gas imports increased from 25 to 32 bcm. Combined, this represents a 21% year-on-year rise, with the EU estimating total imports from Russia in 2025 will reach 37 bcm.
Analysts have flagged that the transition away from Russian gas will impact EU member states unevenly. Countries with long-term contracts for Russian LNG face challenges in securing alternative long-term agreements. For Hungary and Slovakia, which still receive pipeline gas from Gazprom via the Turkstream pipeline, the roadmap presents financial challenges. These countries benefit from discounted Russian gas and would face higher prices on open markets such as TTF or East Mediterranean hubs if those contracts are terminated.
Since Ukraine halted Russian gas transit to Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2025, Hungary and Slovakia have relied entirely on Turkstream. Hungary boosted its intake from the route to 7.9 bcm in 2024, up from 5.9 bcm in 2023. Slovakia, once a key transit hub for Russian gas to other European states, is now using Turkstream supplies from Hungary solely for domestic consumption. Both countries have emphasized their intent to preserve existing contracts with Gazprom to maintain access to lower-cost gas.
