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Europe: Electricity prices surge in late September amid lower renewable output and rising demand

In the fourth week of September, average electricity prices increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Exceptions included Italy’s IPEX market, which fell slightly by 0.9%, and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, which dropped 18%. France’s EPEX SPOT market saw the smallest increase at 34%, while the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries recorded the largest percentage rise at 92%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting saw price increases ranging from 65% in the UK’s N2EX market to 78% in Germany’s EPEX SPOT market.

During the week of September 22, weekly average prices exceeded €60/MWh in most European markets. The Nordic and French markets were below this threshold, with averages of €41.27/MWh and €44.17/MWh, respectively. Italy had the highest weekly average at €108.67/MWh. Other markets recorded weekly averages between €60.59/MWh in Spain and €96.39/MWh in the UK.

On a daily basis, the Nordic market recorded the lowest average on Monday, September 22, at €12.49/MWh. France also had daily prices below €15/MWh on September 22 and 23. In contrast, Italy maintained daily prices above €100/MWh for nearly the entire week, reaching a weekly peak of €116.20/MWh on September 23. On that day, Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands also recorded daily averages above €100/MWh. On Monday, September 29, these four markets again had daily prices exceeding €100/MWh, with Germany reaching the highest at €130.57/MWh.

The price increases during the week of September 22 were driven by a decline in solar and wind energy production in most markets, coupled with higher electricity demand. Conversely, in the Iberian Peninsula, rising wind energy production and lower demand contributed to lower prices in the MIBEL market, AleaSoft reports.

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