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Europe: Electricity prices show mixed trends in late August, forecasts point to September declines

During the fourth week of August, electricity prices in major European markets showed mixed trends compared to the previous week. The Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries recorded the largest weekly average increase at 58%. Italy’s IPEX market and the EPEX SPOT markets of the Netherlands and Germany also saw price rises of 3.6%, 4.3%, and 12%, respectively. Conversely, the UK’s N2EX market experienced the largest drop at 15%. Other analyzed markets saw weekly price declines ranging from 3.0% in Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market to 5.0% in France’s EPEX SPOT market.

For the week of August 25, weekly average prices remained below €85/MWh in most European markets. Exceptions included Germany and Italy, with averages of €90.19/MWh and €109.82/MWh, respectively. France recorded the lowest weekly average at €55.56/MWh, while other markets ranged from €65.37/MWh in Spain’s MIBEL market to €82.77/MWh in the Netherlands.

On a daily basis, Sunday, August 31, saw the UK reach its lowest average of the week at €16.57/MWh, the lowest since May 26. France also recorded a price below €20/MWh on the same day, at €18.88/MWh. In contrast, Germany and Italy posted daily prices above €100/MWh during the week, with Italy reaching the highest daily average of €122.21/MWh on August 28. That same day, the Nord Pool market recorded its highest price since March 14 at €98.47/MWh.

Lower prices in Spain, France, and Portugal were supported by increased wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula and in France, while falling demand contributed to price reductions in the UK. Meanwhile, rising weekly gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, coupled with increased demand, pushed prices higher in other markets. Germany and Italy also experienced lower wind and solar generation, contributing to higher prices.

Looking ahead to the first week of September, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates falling electricity prices in most European markets, supported by increased wind generation and lower demand in some areas. Solar energy production is also expected to rise in Spain, AleaSoft reports.

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