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Europe: Electricity prices rise in mid-July amid demand surge and lower renewables, forecast to decline in late July

During the third week of July, average electricity prices rose in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market and Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market were exceptions, with weekly averages falling by 1.3% and 2.5%, respectively. France’s EPEX SPOT market experienced the largest increase, with prices surging 22%, mainly during the early part of the week, before declining over the weekend. Sunday recorded the lowest prices of the week among the main European markets. In contrast, the Netherlands’ EPEX SPOT market saw the smallest rise at just 0.1%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting showed price increases ranging from 0.2% in Portugal’s MIBEL market to 8.8% in Italy’s IPEX market.

Most European electricity markets maintained weekly average prices above €75/MWh during the week of July 14. The Nordic and French markets were exceptions, with averages of €33.12/MWh and €60.89/MWh, respectively. Italy’s IPEX market registered the highest weekly average at €117.87/MWh. Other markets ranged from €77.80/MWh in the Iberian market to €95.53/MWh in the British market.

On July 20, France recorded the lowest daily average price among analyzed markets at €20.58/MWh, while Italy reached the highest daily average of €122.52/MWh on July 15. Italian prices remained above €110/MWh throughout the week.

During some hours in the third week of July, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal experienced negative hourly electricity prices. On July 20, between 16:00 and 17:00, the Iberian market registered the lowest hourly price of the week at €1.01/MWh.

The increase in electricity demand across most markets during the week of July 14, along with higher CO₂ emission allowance prices and lower solar and wind energy production in some markets, contributed to the price rise.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting projects that electricity prices will decrease in most major European markets during the fourth week of July, driven by lower demand and increased wind energy production in some regions, AleaSoft reports.

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