In January 2024, the monthly average price was below €80/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the averages of the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the IPEX market of Italy, which were €83.76/MWh and €99.16/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the lowest monthly price, €67.64/MWh. In the rest of the European electricity markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, averages ranged from €74.08/MWh in the MIBEL market of Portugal to €78.56/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium.
Monthly prices in most European electricity markets have remained stable over the past few months, with some downward trend. However, compared to December, average prices increased slightly in January in most European electricity markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The exceptions were the Nordic market, with a 6.6% decrease, and the Italian market, with a 14% decrease. On the other hand, the German and Belgian markets registered the largest increase, 13% in both cases. In the other markets, prices rose between 2.6% in the Portuguese market and 12% in the French market.
Comparing average prices in January with those registered in the same month of 2023, prices decreased in most analyzed markets. The exceptions were the Spanish and Portuguese markets, with increases of 6.5% and 6.8%, respectively. On the contrary, the largest price drop was that of the British market, 44%. In the other markets, price declines ranged from 26% in the Nordic market to 43% in the Italian market.
In January 2023, under the influence of the Iberian exception mechanism, MIBEL market prices were the lowest of all analyzed markets. When taking into account the adjustment that some consumers had to pay for the gas price cap in this market, the January 2023 average was €70.90/MWh, also lower than the January 2024 average.
In January 2024, monthly prices of the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal were the highest in the last three months. In contrast, the Nordic market registered the lowest average in the last three months. In the case of the Italian market, despite reaching the highest average of all analyzed markets in January 2024, it was the lowest in the last 31 months in the IPEX market.
The fall in the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights and the general increase in solar energy production led to a year-on-year decrease in European electricity market prices in January 2024, despite the recovery in demand. In addition, wind energy production increased in some markets, such as Germany and Italy, but it decreased in the Iberian Peninsula, which contributed to the year-on-year price increase in the MIBEL market.
On the other hand, in January 2024, the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights also fell compared to the previous month, although to a lesser extent. In addition, demand increased and wind energy production decreased in most analyzed markets. This led to higher prices in European electricity markets, despite the general increase in solar energy production compared to the previous month. In the case of the Italian market, wind energy production also increased compared to December, contributing to the price decrease in this market.
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