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Europe: Electricity prices fall in early July amid higher solar output, set to rise on lower wind and increased demand

During the second week of July, average electricity prices decreased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The exceptions were the United Kingdom’s N2EX market and the Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market, which saw price increases of 9.9% and 67%, respectively. France’s EPEX SPOT market experienced the largest percentage drop at 34%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting recorded declines ranging from 5.1% in Germany’s EPEX SPOT market to 16% in Spain’s MIBEL market.

Despite these price decreases, weekly averages during the week of July 7 remained above €75/MWh in most European markets. The Nordic and French markets were exceptions, with averages of €33.54/MWh and €49.96/MWh, respectively. Italy’s IPEX market posted the highest weekly average at €108.38/MWh. Other markets’ weekly averages ranged from €77.28/MWh in Spain to €91.51/MWh in the United Kingdom.

On the daily level, the Nordic market recorded the lowest average price of the week on Sunday, July 13, at €16.99/MWh. However, on July 9, it reached its highest daily price since May 10, at €51.81/MWh. Italian prices remained above €100/MWh throughout the week, with the highest daily average of €118.27/MWh recorded on Monday, July 7. The Iberian market also exceeded €100/MWh on Thursday, July 10.

The decline in electricity demand, combined with increased solar energy production in most markets, contributed to the overall price drop across Europe during the week of July 7. Wind energy production also rose in France and Italy.

Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting projects that electricity prices will rise during the third week of July in most major European markets, driven by reduced wind energy output and, in some cases, higher demand, AleaSoft reports.

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