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Europe: Electricity prices drop in early March 2025, but forecasts predict rise ahead

In the first week of March, average electricity prices across major European markets fell compared to the previous week. The N2EX market in the United Kingdom saw the smallest drop at 5.8%, while the Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market recorded the largest decline, with a 56% price decrease. In other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 7.2% in Italy’s IPEX market and 28% in Spain and Portugal’s MIBEL market.

During the week of March 3, weekly average prices in most European markets were below €95/MWh. The British and Italian markets were exceptions, with averages of €107.29/MWh and €123.11/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nordic market saw the lowest weekly average at €17.44/MWh. Other markets had average prices ranging from €65.88/MWh in Spain and Portugal to €93.50/MWh in Germany’s EPEX SPOT market.

Looking at daily prices, the Nordic market hit a low of €3.92/MWh on March 5, marking the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets and the lowest since November 2, 2024. On March 8, the Iberian market reached a price of €15.22/MWh, the lowest since November 25, 2024. Similarly, the Italian market registered a price of €105.78/MWh on March 8, the lowest since December 24, 2024.

The decrease in electricity prices during the week of March 3 was driven by a combination of factors. These included a drop in the weekly prices of gas and CO2 emission allowances, reduced demand across most markets, and an increase in renewable energy production. Wind energy production rose in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany, while solar energy production increased in Germany, France, and Italy, further contributing to price declines.

Looking ahead to the second week of March, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts suggest that prices will rise in most European electricity markets. This increase will likely be influenced by higher electricity demand and lower wind energy production in several of the markets analyzed, AleaSoft reports.

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