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Europe: Electricity prices decline in late July, mixed outlook for early August

During the final week of July, average electricity prices declined across the major European power markets compared to the previous week. The smallest reductions were observed in the United Kingdom’s N2EX market and Italy’s IPEX market, with decreases of 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the largest drop was recorded in the Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market, where prices fell by 24%. In other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price decreases ranged from 12% in Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market to 21% in Spain and Portugal’s MIBEL market.

For the week starting July 28, average electricity prices in most European markets remained below €80/MWh. Notable exceptions were the UK and Italy, where prices averaged €88.77/MWh and €104.28/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market posted the lowest weekly average at €29.95/MWh. Other markets saw averages ranging from €43.28/MWh in Spain to €76.44/MWh in Germany.

Looking at daily figures, prices stayed under €45/MWh in most markets on Sunday, August 3. The Nordic region once again recorded the lowest daily average, just €7.59/MWh. In contrast, Italy consistently saw prices above €100/MWh during the last week of July, peaking at €113.27/MWh on Friday, August 1.

The decline in prices during the week of July 28 was largely driven by lower electricity demand and increased solar energy output across many markets. Additionally, wind power generation rose in Germany, Spain, and Italy, further contributing to the downward trend.

Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting projects that electricity prices will rise in the Iberian, Italian, and French markets during the first week of August, mainly due to reduced wind power generation. However, price declines are expected to persist in other major European markets, supported in part by higher solar energy production, AleaSoft reports.

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