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Europe: Brent oil, TTF gas and CO2 prices decline amid economic uncertainty and supply adjustments

During the last week of May, settlement prices for Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market remained below $65 per barrel. The highest settlement price of the week was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, at $64.90 per barrel. Prices then declined, reaching the weekly minimum of $63.90 per barrel on Friday, May 30. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous Friday.

The downward trend in Brent oil futures was largely driven by ongoing concerns about the global economic outlook. Additionally, expectations of increased production from OPEC+ contributed to the price pressure. On Saturday, May 31, OPEC+ announced its decision to continue increasing output in July by 411,000 barrels per day—the same amount as in May and June.

TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front Month reached their highest settlement price of the week on Monday, May 26, at €37.52 per megawatt-hour—the highest level since April 4. Prices declined during the rest of the week, with the lowest settlement price recorded on Friday, May 30, at €34.23/MWh. This marked a 6.1% decrease from the previous Friday.

Early in the week, TTF gas prices were elevated due to supply disruptions from Norway caused by maintenance operations at multiple gas fields. However, worries about weaker demand, fueled by ongoing global trade tensions, exerted downward pressure on prices for the remainder of the week.

Meanwhile, CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract also followed a downward trend. The weekly maximum was reached on Monday, May 26, at €73.03 per ton. By Friday, May 30, the price had dropped to €70.41 per ton, 1.6% lower than the previous Friday, according to data from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, AleaSoft reports.

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