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Europe: Brent oil, TTF gas and CO2 futures show volatility amid geopolitical tensions and market demand

Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market reached their lowest weekly settlement price of $73.23 per barrel on Monday, June 16. Prices then climbed, remaining above $75 per barrel for the rest of the week. The peak weekly settlement price was $78.85 per barrel on Thursday, June 19 — the highest level since January 23. However, on Friday, June 20, Brent futures dropped 2.3% to settle at $77.01 per barrel, still 3.7% higher than the previous Friday.

Rising Brent prices were influenced by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities heightened fears of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route — a move already proposed in the Iranian Parliament but not yet enacted.

TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market hit their lowest weekly settlement price of €37.91/MWh on Monday, June 16. Prices trended upward for most of the week, peaking at €41.63/MWh on Thursday, June 19 — the highest since April 3. On Friday, June 20, settlement prices slightly declined to €40.93/MWh, still 8.0% higher than the prior Friday.

TTF gas prices were pushed higher by concerns over liquefied natural gas supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, alongside increased demand in Europe due to elevated temperatures.

Meanwhile, CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 contract reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €75.34 per ton on Monday, June 16. This was already 0.8% lower than the previous Friday’s price. The downward trend continued through the week, culminating in the weekly minimum settlement price of €72.75 per ton on Thursday, June 19, AleaSoft reports.

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