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Europe: Brent oil rebounds, TTF gas hits six-month low in mid-November

Brent crude oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market reached their highest settlement price of the week — $65.16/bbl — on Tuesday, November 11. After a 3.8% drop from the previous day, the weekly low was recorded on November 12 at $62.71/bbl. Prices then recovered in the final sessions of the week, with the settlement price rising to $64.39/bbl on Friday, November 14, a level 1.2% higher than the previous Friday, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

Expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would end — potentially boosting American oil demand — and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies supported higher Brent prices at the start of the week. However, downward pressure emerged mid-week due to the International Energy Agency’s forecasts pointing to a production surplus. Toward the end of the week, prices rose again after Ukraine carried out an attack on Russian oil infrastructure.

TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market stayed below €31.50/MWh throughout the second week of November. The weekly minimum settlement price, €30.46/MWh, was reached on Thursday, November 13 — the lowest level since May 17, 2024. Prices rebounded the next day, climbing 2.6% and reaching the weekly high of €31.25/MWh on Friday, November 14, a slight 0.2% increase compared with the previous Friday.

High LNG availability and strong pipeline flows from Norway continued to weigh on TTF prices during the week. Mild weather kept demand low in China, allowing more LNG to flow into Europe, while increased wind generation further reduced European gas consumption.

CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2025 contract on the EEX market recorded their weekly low on Monday, November 10, at €79.96/t, already slightly above the previous Friday’s value. Prices continued rising until November 12, when they reached the weekly high of €81.91/t. In the last sessions of the week, prices eased, closing at €80.94/t on Friday, November 14 — still 1.8% above the previous Friday’s level, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

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