During the week of July 29, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market experienced a decline, with settlement prices falling below $80 per barrel on most days. This marked the first time prices dipped below this level since June 7. The highest price of the week was $80.72/bbl on July 31, but by Friday, August 2, prices had dropped to a weekly low of $76.81/bbl, the lowest settlement price since January 10, representing a 5.3% decrease from the previous Friday.
The downward trend in Brent oil prices continued into the first week of August, though a brief rebound occurred on July 31, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, as well as an unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). However, prices declined again later in the week due to fears of a potential recession in the US, highlighted by a 4.3% increase in unemployment in July, and a slowdown in manufacturing activity in China, which reduced crude oil demand.
In contrast, TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market saw a significant increase in the first week of August. The weekly average of settlement prices was 10% higher than the previous week, with the lowest price at €34.29/MWh on July 29 and rising to €36.97/MWh by August 1, the highest since December 8, 2023. Although prices slightly decreased to €36.65/MWh on August 2, this was still 11% higher than the previous Friday.
The increase in gas prices was influenced by heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about gas supply disruptions, particularly affecting the flow of Israeli gas to Egypt and the transit of LNG through critical areas like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Additionally, high temperatures in Europe drove up gas demand for cooling purposes.
CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the December 2024 contract also rose, in line with gas prices. The weekly average settlement price increased by 4.4% compared to the previous week, reaching a high of €71.18/t on August 1, the highest since June 7. Despite a slight decrease to €70.58/t on August 2, the price remained 4.0% higher than the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft.
