European natural gas prices continued their downward trend heading into mid-December 2025, nearing €27/MWh, marking a new low since April 2024. This follows a decline of more than 7% in November, extending the year-to-date drop to around 45% and a fall of over 90% from the record highs reached during the 2022 energy crisis.
TTF gas futures on the ICE market for January 2026 delivery traded lower in the first week of December compared to Week 48, hovering close to €28/MWh. On Monday, December 1, prices fell -2.0% from the previous week’s last session, settling at €28.227/MWh, which was -5.6% lower than the same day in Week 48. Prices then trended downward throughout the week, reaching a weekly low of €27.088/MWh on Thursday, December 4, down -4.0% from the previous day and -7.2% below the previous Thursday. The weekly average settlement price was €27.767/MWh, -5.5% lower than the average for Week 48.
Analysts attribute the losses in Week 49 to softening demand and robust supply, with milder and windier weather reducing gas needs for power generation and heating. Warmer conditions are expected to persist across Europe through mid-December. EU gas inventories are currently 74% full, slightly below the five-year seasonal average of 85%, while strong Norwegian exports and ample LNG supplies further ease concerns about storage levels during the heating season.
On the political front, the European Union has reached a provisional agreement on the legally binding phase-out of Russian gas, ending over five decades of reliance. On Wednesday, December 3, representatives of the Council of the EU presidency and the European Parliament agreed on a stepwise prohibition of both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia. The regulation introduces a full ban from the end of 2026 for LNG and autumn 2027 for pipeline gas. Short-term supply contracts signed before June 17, 2025, will face restrictions from April 25, 2026 (LNG) and June 17, 2026 (pipeline gas). Long-term LNG contracts are affected from January 1, 2027, while long-term pipeline contracts will be phased out by September 30, 2027, aligned with gas storage targets, and no later than November 1, 2027.
The regulation also establishes a prior authorisation system to prevent circumvention, requiring all member states to submit national diversification plans detailing replacement strategies for Russian supplies. Countries still importing Russian oil must submit similar plans. Penalties apply to companies and individuals who violate the rules, while a narrowly defined emergency clause allows temporary suspension of the ban if energy security is threatened. The provisional deal will enter into force following formal approval by the European Parliament and the Council.
According to European Gas Hub, the EU is expected to import around 20 bcm of Russian LNG in 2025, mainly in Northwest and Southwest Europe, and approximately 14 bcm of piped gas, with 10.5 bcm under long-term contracts.
