For more than two decades, Serbia’s energy model rested on a simple premise: that natural gas would remain a stable, reasonably priced and geopolitically reliable cornerstone of the country’s heating, industrial processing and urban energy landscapes. The assumption was rooted in geography and politics. Russia supplied the gas, Serbia built the pipelines, and households and industry absorbed a steady, predictable flow. That world, however, has dissolved. The geopolitical rupture triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the vulnerabilities of Serbia’s gas dependency, even with temporary carve-outs and long-term contracts still in place. Gas prices spiked. Infrastructure risks multiplied. The fragility of one-dimensional supply chains became impossible to ignore.
In parallel, the electricity sector — shaped by coal and hydropower for decades — began its own transformation. Renewables accelerated, the grid came under mounting pressure, and EPS found itself forced to reinvent its balancing architecture. As these shifts converged, a profound question quietly emerged: if gas can no longer be the anchor it once was, who stands to gain from Serbia’s pivot toward an electricity-centered energy model?
It is not a small or abstract question. The answer will determine which companies, technologies, investors and sectors dominate Serbia’s energy economy for the next thirty years. It will shape how households heat their homes, how factories power their machinery, how district heating evolves, how the grid is modernized and how the state defines energy security in a region still marked by volatility. Analysts writing for serbia-energy.eu have repeatedly emphasized that Serbia is undergoing a systemic realignment in which the center of gravity is shifting from imported molecules to domestically generated electrons. As that shift accelerates, winners and losers are already emerging.
The first potential winners of Serbia’s electricity pivot are the developers and investors behind renewable energy projects. For years, wind and solar were viewed as complementary sources, auxiliary contributions to a system dominated by coal and hydro. They were economically viable, but their role was marginal. Today, as households contemplate electric heat pumps, as industry explores electrification of thermal processes, and as energy policy increasingly ties security of supply to domestic generation, renewables become not supplementary but foundational. Every kilowatt-hour produced in Serbia is a unit of energy not imported at volatile prices. Every new wind turbine and solar panel reduces exposure to geopolitical risk.
This shift creates a new space for investors who are prepared to build at scale. Wind developers in Vojvodina — long constrained by grid congestion and uncertain market signals — now find themselves at the center of an electrification narrative the country can no longer postpone. Solar developers, once slowed by permitting bottlenecks and local resistance, are discovering that political support for photovoltaic expansion is gaining weight as policymakers realise how much electricity Serbia will require if heat pumps, EVs and electrified industry gain traction. Even biomass and biogas, which struggled for years to position themselves as mainstream technologies, are benefiting from renewed attention as flexible, dispatchable sources capable of smoothing renewable intermittency.
But the growth of renewables does not automatically translate into a stable electricity-centered energy system. Serbia must still resolve the structural weaknesses that prevent renewables from fully replacing gas. Grid congestion remains a critical barrier. Transmission pathways from north to south are insufficient for large-scale renewable injection. Curtailment threatens investment models, and the absence of storage reduces the reliability of renewable-driven electrification. Still, the economic logic is unmistakable: as gas weakens, renewables strengthen. Serbia’s domestic energy future will belong to those who can reliably generate electricity within its borders.
The second category of winners emerges from the technologies and companies positioned to electrify Serbia’s heating landscape. For decades, gas was the default fuel for district heating in cities and towns. But electrification of heating — once seen as technically complex and economically uncompetitive — is entering a period of global acceleration. Heat pumps, in particular, have become the flagship technology for replacing gas in both residential and commercial settings. Serbia’s climate, with moderate winters and a growing need for cooling during hotter summers, makes heat pumps especially viable.
The companies that can deploy heat pumps at scale, integrate them into district heating retrofits, and manage demand intelligently will likely capture substantial new markets. For households, electricity-based heating offers a promise of stability in a world where gas supply is uncertain and gas prices are subject to geopolitical turbulence. For district heating companies, electrifying parts of their systems through large-scale heat pumps, geothermal sources or thermal storage offers a way to decarbonize and reduce exposure to imported fuels. And for Serbia as a whole, electrified heating aligns with the long-term strategic imperative of strengthening domestic energy autonomy.
The industrial landscape is also poised for transformation. Many Serbian factories rely on gas for thermal processes, whether in food processing, chemical production, metallurgy or ceramics. As electricity becomes more competitive — especially if Serbia builds substantial renewable capacity — industries will gradually adopt electrified furnaces, electric boilers and alternative process-heat technologies. Companies that manufacture, integrate and service such equipment stand to benefit from a decade-long transformation of industrial energy systems. Partnerships between Serbian firms and international suppliers could become a new axis of industrial modernization.
Another set of winners will emerge from the trading, supply and balancing markets that accompany a more electrified energy ecosystem. When Serbia shifts from gas to electricity, it increases both the volatility and the opportunity of the power market. As imports fluctuate, renewables surge and storage becomes essential, sophisticated traders and flexible suppliers will play a larger role. Cross-border electricity traders, regional utilities, and EPC companies with strong energy-management divisions will find new openings. Even EPS, if it modernizes its internal trading strategies and embraces market participation rather than administrative inertia, could reposition itself as an active player in the broader regional power landscape.
Yet perhaps the most consequential winner of Serbia’s electrification shift will be the companies and institutions capable of building and financing large-scale storage and flexible capacity. Renewable energy cannot replace gas unless storage solutions — batteries, pumped-storage hydropower, hydrogen-ready systems or hybrid technologies — are deployed at scale. Investors willing to build Serbia’s first utility-scale battery farms will become central actors in the transition. If the long-discussed Bistrica pumped-storage plant finally advances, the constructors, operators and financiers behind it will hold a strategic asset for decades. Pumped storage, long dismissed as a heritage technology, now stands poised to become the backbone of Serbia’s electrified economy.
The shift away from gas also creates space for new forms of regional cooperation. Serbia’s interconnectors with Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Montenegro and North Macedonia become strategic infrastructure not only for gas diversification but for electricity trade. Countries with excess renewable generation will influence Serbia’s balancing needs, and Serbia may discover opportunities to export surplus renewable electricity during high-generation intervals. The regionalization of electricity markets, already advanced in parts of the EU, will increasingly shape Serbia’s energy planning. In this environment, those capable of navigating regional power exchanges, cross-border PPAs and multi-state balancing platforms will wield considerable influence.
Conversely, the move away from gas raises questions about who stands to lose. Gas suppliers, distributors and pipeline operators face long-term structural decline unless they successfully pivot into alternative business models. The infrastructure built for gas distribution will not become obsolete overnight, but its role will diminish unless it adapts. Some companies may reposition themselves around biomethane, hydrogen blending or district heating electrification. Others may struggle to redefine their relevance.
Russian gas interests, long dominant in Serbia, will inevitably see their influence wane. Even if Serbia maintains political flexibility in its foreign policy, the mathematics of energy security will push the country toward diversified supply and electrified demand. As Serbia integrates deeper into regional electricity markets, the geopolitical leverage associated with gas pipelines will lose significance. Electricity cannot be weaponized in the same way gas can. A country that relies on domestic renewable energy is less susceptible to strategic pressure than one dependent on a single external gas supplier.
The electrification shift also forces Serbia to confront internal institutional weaknesses. EPS must modernize its balancing strategy, reform its governance, embrace digitalization and accelerate investment in renewable capacity. EMS must expand its grid, increase transformer capacity, optimize congested corridors and modernize system controls. The Ministry of Mining and Energy must design policies that encourage electrification without destabilizing the system. If these institutions adapt effectively, Serbia’s energy transition will not only reduce dependence on gas but also strengthen national resilience. If they fail, electrification could expose new vulnerabilities.
The winners of this transition will be those who act early. Renewable developers who secure grid access and market flexibility will build the foundation of Serbia’s domestic energy independence. Heat-pump manufacturers and installers will transform the heating market. Industrial electrification specialists will reshape factory floors. Storage investors will create new revenue streams. Traders and utilities will navigate a more dynamic market. And Serbia’s grid operators will define the infrastructure on which the entire transition depends.
What emerges is not a simple story of substituting gas with electricity, but a systemic restructuring that touches every part of Serbia’s energy economy. Gas shaped Serbia’s urbanization, industrialization and political alignment for decades. Electricity — particularly domestically generated, renewable electricity — will shape its modern identity, its climate trajectory and its geopolitical posture.
The transition will not be linear. It will include moments of strain, cost spikes, institutional hesitation and technological risk. But the logic is unmistakable: Serbia cannot build a resilient, independent energy system on a fuel whose price and availability it cannot control. It can, however, build such a system on renewable electricity supported by flexible generation, modern grid architecture and storage.
In this new landscape, the winners will be those who recognize that Serbia’s energy future will be written not in cubic meters of gas but in megawatt-hours of clean, reliable and increasingly domestic electricity. The shift has already begun. The question now is who will shape it — and who will simply react to it.
