Scenario one: High volatility, tight LNG markets
In a scenario characterised by global LNG tightness, regulatory uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risk, European gas prices remain volatile with frequent spikes. Average prices may moderate, but extreme events become more common.
Under this scenario, Serbian exporters without flexibility face chronic margin pressure. Steel and ceramics suffer the most, with frequent episodes of negative margins during peak energy price periods. Chemical producers encounter feedstock-driven cost shocks, while food processors experience episodic but severe margin erosion.
CBAM amplifies these effects by penalising emissions intensity and electricity-related carbon exposure. Export margins narrow not because Serbian production is inefficient, but because volatility itself becomes a structural disadvantage.
Scenario two: Stabilised supply, managed transition
In a stabilised LNG environment with sufficient supply and clearer regulation, gas prices remain lower and less volatile. In this scenario, Serbian exporters that invest in flexibility and energy integration regain competitiveness.
Steel and chemical producers benefit from predictable energy costs, while food and ceramics producers achieve margin stability through fixed-price electricity and partial electrification.
CBAM becomes a manageable compliance cost rather than an existential threat, allowing Serbian exporters to operate with greater certainty and strategic control.
Elevated by clarion.energy
